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60,000 hands before making a profit at 50NL - yikes!

The learning curve at 50NL was steeper than I anticipated. On 28 December 2009 I transitioned from 25NL and like jumping from a plane, the decent was immediate and steep. I lost $241 the first day; almost 5 buy-ins. My downswing hit bottom a month later on 28 January 2010. I was down $1,142. 46 days later on 3/15/2010, I am up $89. I started with a bankroll of $3,200 and made some bonuses on Pokerstars putting my bankroll at $3,761. This was an important time for my learning. Which shouldn’t be surprising given I have 60,000 hands under my belt at 50NL now. So what did I learn?

1) My bankroll strategy has been validated. I started with 64 buy-ins giving me a buffer between having to move down if things went south, as the graph above indicates they did. There’s nothing magic about 64 buy-ins except I wanted some number above 50 buy-ins so I could use 50 buy-ins as a threshold for moving back to 25NL. As it happened I did surpass that threshold and got to the low $2,300s. Anyway, you should expect when you move up that there will be a learning curve so it makes sense to prepare for a potential downswing. And there is no guarantee of a downswing, but the point is to have sufficient room to give the new limit a serious shot.

2) There is a limit to the number of tables one can play profitably. I started out playing 6 tables but noticed my results improve almost immediately after dropping to 4. I knew at one time that playing more tables decreases your win rate but could still be more profitable because the marginal profit when increasing tables by 1 could more than compensate for the total decreased profit at the current number of tables. Where my assumptions were off was where that break-even profit was for me, or put in economic terms where the marginal revenue was equal to the marginal cost. I played 6 tables sometimes 9. And when I tilted I might even play 12, which is a disaster. It’s like having negative margin and trying to make it up on volume – not sound math.

3) Most importantly, I have simply improved at the tables. Almost more than the money, I enjoy looking back every month and thinking how cool it is to be a better player than the previous month. What the Japanese would call “kaizen”, I believe in the philosophy continuous improvement. Poker is an academic exercise made up of many concepts and disciplines of every day life. These include, but are not limited to, risk management, strategic thinking, math and game theory, psychology, meta-game, observation, focus, patience, self-control, etiquette, emotional control, confidence, competition and on and on.

Whether work or play, take what you do seriously. Be in it to win it.

Good luck!!

-Mike

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

BB ($50)
UTG ($68.45)
Hero (Button) ($64.20)
SB ($105.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) J, 9, K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.50) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6

Total pot: $19.50 | Rake: $0.95

Results:
Hero had A, 10 (one pair, Jacks).
SB had Q, 5 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $18.55

I expect to see a 9 or K here some portion of the time. He can’t have a jack or a straight unless he either slow-played the flop and/or missed a check-raise on the turn. The reason I called is many draws missed, his preflop and flop calling ranges are super wide. He calls from the bb w/ 67% of hands, albiet on a smallish sample. This is 67%: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o. I’ve seen him bluff the river before and he’s probably not going to bet a hand like 77 or 88 for value or as a bluff. I need win 44% of the time to break even on this call. Raising the river would be an option if the turn was an offsuit jack but since it was a diamond, trips are never in my range because I’m always betting trips for value when the turn improves his range.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

MP ($13.90)
Button ($10.95)
SB ($66.20)
BB ($50)
Hero (UTG) ($68.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $2, 2 folds, SB raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, SB raises to $66.20 (All-In), Hero calls $52.20

Flop: ($132.90) 2, 6, 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($132.90) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($132.90) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $132.90 | Rake: $2

Results:
SB had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Hero had K, K (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $130.90

This guy is a standard tag. I expect his value 3-bets to be larger with deep stacks because I can call wider with position. Therefore I expect him to have a wide polarized range (22+, 87s+, AT+, etc…) Also, he is 3-betting too frequently (8.5 % of the time). I like a polarized 3 betting range more as stacks get deep so I don’t hate his 3-bet but since I know that its polarized, I can call wider and I don’t know that he knows that. My hand is not usually not going to flop great but calling here will develop some image so when I do pick-up a hand, he is more likely to make a mistake. As it turns out, this is an interesting flop for my hand because this flop and turn are trouble for the better part of his range but actually hit his non-4 betting range pretty well. On the turn, bet sizing is key. If I planned to fire 3 barrels, then I would make it smaller so I have enough on the river for a credible river bluff (i.e. enough where I can still get more river folds). Here I did not plan on betting the river so I wanted to bet enough to get max fold equity on the turn while making it look like I was commited on the river. In other words, leveraging my $26 bet to look like $66 in his eyes because he should not expect me to fold for $40 on the river when the pot is $92. This is why if he calls the turn I can not profitably bluff the river but if I bet smaller on the turn I can possibly shove certian river cards (non spade 4 for example) because he could call the turn with the ace of spades.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($25.80)
SB ($93.15)
BB ($10)
UTG ($58.65)
Hero (MP) ($86.30)
CO ($116.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 2, J, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $6.50, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $8.50

Turn: ($40.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, 1 fold

Total pot: $40.50 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show 7, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $38.50

I don’t expect him to fold AA here even without top set. Therefore, he is destined to win small pots and lose big ones.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($79.95)
SB ($65.15)
Hero (BB) ($97.10)
UTG ($54.05)
MP ($9)
CO ($44.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, Q
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) 9, 6, A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($5.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $17, CO calls $12

River: ($39.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $25, CO calls $25 (All-In)

Total pot: $89.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 8, Q (flush, Ace high).
CO mucked A, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $86.50