I could have bet the flop because although I put QQ and JJ in his cold 3 bet calling range, it is also in my sb 3 betting range. I didn’t think I had fold equity but countering this was the fact that I had no showdown value with 22, so I should have c-bet. But the turn was great. I never expect him to check back a set in a big pot on that wet board. It’s also a good spot for a bluff or semi-bluff. So when he checks back his range is made hands like a pocket pair smaller than TT, or a hand like AJs or AK that has equity (some clean over-card outs and a gutter). So betting $5 on the turn sets up a less than pot size bet on the river. The question is should I be check-folding, bet folding or shoving a diamond river that does not pair the board?
That’s a good question, considering the pot is $18 and you have $16.75 left. I wouldn’t shove a diamond river that doesn’t pair the board, the only hands that call at that point are likely the flush, and if he folds it means you probably had him beat anyway. Check means you’re either missing out on some value and/or allowing him to bluff if he still had nothing. Bet seems like the best answer, but can you fold at that point considering what you have left and the size of the pot then? Like I said, good question.
Is that a common preflop call at $25NL? Seems like a weak hand. I mean he has few options, flop a flush draw, two pair, maybe a wheel draw. Calling $3.25 he can’t be happy to just pair his weak Ace? Sure, he had position but never used it, so that didn’t seem like a factor. Of course the only chance he had to use position was the flop.
Jim
Actually Jim I butchered it badly. Preflop I should have just called because flopping a set has so much value. I like the 3-bet more heads up, though there is more passive dead money with the extra caller. Having 3-bet and got it heads up, I think I should have bet the flop. Then when I made my hand on the turn I bet too small, which set me up to get owned on the river by a lot of draws that got there, though a backdoor flush draw seemed unlikely at the time. I think I can have missed draws on the river and he can have a fair amount that can’t fold, so I think there are probably very few cards I’m not willing to get it in with on the river.