Thirdbarrel.com

This guy is a standard tag. I expect his value 3-bets to be larger with deep stacks because I can call wider with position. Therefore I expect him to have a wide polarized range (22+, 87s+, AT+, etc…) Also, he is 3-betting too frequently (8.5 % of the time). I like a polarized 3 betting range more as stacks get deep so I don’t hate his 3-bet but since I know that its polarized, I can call wider and I don’t know that he knows that. My hand is not usually not going to flop great but calling here will develop some image so when I do pick-up a hand, he is more likely to make a mistake. As it turns out, this is an interesting flop for my hand because this flop and turn are trouble for the better part of his range but actually hit his non-4 betting range pretty well. On the turn, bet sizing is key. If I planned to fire 3 barrels, then I would make it smaller so I have enough on the river for a credible river bluff (i.e. enough where I can still get more river folds). Here I did not plan on betting the river so I wanted to bet enough to get max fold equity on the turn while making it look like I was commited on the river. In other words, leveraging my $26 bet to look like $66 in his eyes because he should not expect me to fold for $40 on the river when the pot is $92. This is why if he calls the turn I can not profitably bluff the river but if I bet smaller on the turn I can possibly shove certian river cards (non spade 4 for example) because he could call the turn with the ace of spades.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($25.80)
SB ($93.15)
BB ($10)
UTG ($58.65)
Hero (MP) ($86.30)
CO ($116.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 2, J, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $6.50, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $8.50

Turn: ($40.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, 1 fold

Total pot: $40.50 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show 7, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $38.50

I don’t expect him to fold AA here even without top set. Therefore, he is destined to win small pots and lose big ones.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($79.95)
SB ($65.15)
Hero (BB) ($97.10)
UTG ($54.05)
MP ($9)
CO ($44.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, Q
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) 9, 6, A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($5.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $17, CO calls $12

River: ($39.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $25, CO calls $25 (All-In)

Total pot: $89.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 8, Q (flush, Ace high).
CO mucked A, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $86.50

This guy is playing 66% of hands over a 70 hand sample and going to showdown with them 35% of the time. That’s going to showdown with 23% of the deck. From a value standpoint that range looks like 66+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo. But in the real world, players who have those stats play much weaker hands than this – as you can see. I min-3bet the turn so we have a pot size bet on the river, which he’s never getting away from with top pair. Given he had 2 pair, he was never folding anyway.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($8.35)
SB ($39.50)
BB ($145.75)
UTG ($56.15)
Hero (MP) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 2, K, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $9, Hero raises to $14, BB calls $5

River: ($35.25) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32.50 (All-In), BB calls $32.50

Total pot: $100.25 | Rake: $2

Results:
BB mucked K, 3 (two pair, Kings and threes).
Hero had A, Q (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $98.25

I could have bet the flop because although I put QQ and JJ in his cold 3 bet calling range, it is also in my sb 3 betting range. I didn’t think I had fold equity but countering this was the fact that I had no showdown value with 22, so I should have c-bet. But the turn was great. I never expect him to check back a set in a big pot on that wet board. It’s also a good spot for a bluff or semi-bluff. So when he checks back his range is made hands like a pocket pair smaller than TT, or a hand like AJs or AK that has equity (some clean over-card outs and a gutter). So betting $5 on the turn sets up a less than pot size bet on the river. The question is should I be check-folding, bet folding or shoving a diamond river that does not pair the board?

I might 3-bet this hand vs. looser opener, but even with position, a suited ace and a decent kicker, I do not think I am ahead of his UTG open range. This hand is an important reminder that not all flushes are created equal. I don’t think his calling from the blinds is bad. But when he shoves the turn, what does he expect I will be calling with? I am not calling with a 5, so that leaves boats and bigger flushes. Now it’s true he could have a boat, but wouldn’t his hand be basically the nuts? If it is, then wouldn’t shoving still be bad? If he has a full house on the turn, he would have raised the flop. As it was, he was drawing dead to T high flushes and better.