Mark Levin + Obama Drone = Funny Stuff

March 9th, 2010

Reagan-Obama Debate

March 9th, 2010

Thin River Call

March 4th, 2010

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

BB ($50)
UTG ($68.45)
Hero (Button) ($64.20)
SB ($105.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) J, 9, K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.50) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.50) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6

Total pot: $19.50 | Rake: $0.95

Results:
Hero had A, 10 (one pair, Jacks).
SB had Q, 5 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $18.55

I expect to see a 9 or K here some portion of the time. He can’t have a jack or a straight unless he either slow-played the flop and/or missed a check-raise on the turn. The reason I called is many draws missed, his preflop and flop calling ranges are super wide. He calls from the bb w/ 67% of hands, albiet on a smallish sample. This is 67%: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o. I’ve seen him bluff the river before and he’s probably not going to bet a hand like 77 or 88 for value or as a bluff. I need win 44% of the time to break even on this call. Raising the river would be an option if the turn was an offsuit jack but since it was a diamond, trips are never in my range because I’m always betting trips for value when the turn improves his range.

Victory in Iraq – Dispite Democrat Efforts

March 2nd, 2010
Newsweek Recognizes Accomplishments

Newsweek Recognizes Accomplishments

Biden tries to claim credit for Obama administration on Iraq. I’m not making this up. The Democrats proved to be an intractable foe in the fight for Iraq. First they voted to support the war, then they went wobbly, as they always do. To the left, the real evil is Republicans. If you want a comprehensive look at what Democrats failed to acknowledge during the debate, here is an excellent site to remind us why our brave soldiers were there: Reasons for war with Iraq

Paul Ryan Schools Obama on Health Care

February 26th, 2010

It appears the president mis-calculated by holding a summit on health care. You see the purpose of this summit was to make Republicans look like obstructionists by not agreeing to meet or not going along with the current Democrat bills, which were all the Dems wanted to talk about. What’s the saying “be careful what you ask for.” Here is Paul Ryan using the bills the President supports and getting right to the heart of why the public is not having any of it. Game/Set/Match.

Sometimes I get Bailed Out

February 11th, 2010

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

MP ($13.90)
Button ($10.95)
SB ($66.20)
BB ($50)
Hero (UTG) ($68.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $2, 2 folds, SB raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, SB raises to $66.20 (All-In), Hero calls $52.20

Flop: ($132.90) 2, 6, 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($132.90) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($132.90) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $132.90 | Rake: $2

Results:
SB had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Hero had K, K (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $130.90

Randy Moller Florida Panther Goal Calls

February 11th, 2010

Position + Deep Stacks = Options

February 6th, 2010

This guy is a standard tag. I expect his value 3-bets to be larger with deep stacks because I can call wider with position. Therefore I expect him to have a wide polarized range (22+, 87s+, AT+, etc…) Also, he is 3-betting too frequently (8.5 % of the time). I like a polarized 3 betting range more as stacks get deep so I don’t hate his 3-bet but since I know that its polarized, I can call wider and I don’t know that he knows that. My hand is not usually not going to flop great but calling here will develop some image so when I do pick-up a hand, he is more likely to make a mistake. As it turns out, this is an interesting flop for my hand because this flop and turn are trouble for the better part of his range but actually hit his non-4 betting range pretty well. On the turn, bet sizing is key. If I planned to fire 3 barrels, then I would make it smaller so I have enough on the river for a credible river bluff (i.e. enough where I can still get more river folds). Here I did not plan on betting the river so I wanted to bet enough to get max fold equity on the turn while making it look like I was commited on the river. In other words, leveraging my $26 bet to look like $66 in his eyes because he should not expect me to fold for $40 on the river when the pot is $92. This is why if he calls the turn I can not profitably bluff the river but if I bet smaller on the turn I can possibly shove certian river cards (non spade 4 for example) because he could call the turn with the ace of spades.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($25.80)
SB ($93.15)
BB ($10)
UTG ($58.65)
Hero (MP) ($86.30)
CO ($116.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) 2, J, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $6.50, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $8.50

Turn: ($40.50) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, 1 fold

Total pot: $40.50 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show 7, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $38.50

The danger of limping AA

February 6th, 2010

I don’t expect him to fold AA here even without top set. Therefore, he is destined to win small pots and lose big ones.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($79.95)
SB ($65.15)
Hero (BB) ($97.10)
UTG ($54.05)
MP ($9)
CO ($44.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, Q
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) 9, 6, A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, CO raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($5.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $17, CO calls $12

River: ($39.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $25, CO calls $25 (All-In)

Total pot: $89.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 8, Q (flush, Ace high).
CO mucked A, A (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $86.50

Setting Up Stacks for Easy River Shove

February 6th, 2010

This guy is playing 66% of hands over a 70 hand sample and going to showdown with them 35% of the time. That’s going to showdown with 23% of the deck. From a value standpoint that range looks like 66+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo. But in the real world, players who have those stats play much weaker hands than this – as you can see. I min-3bet the turn so we have a pot size bet on the river, which he’s never getting away from with top pair. Given he had 2 pair, he was never folding anyway.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($8.35)
SB ($39.50)
BB ($145.75)
UTG ($56.15)
Hero (MP) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 2, K, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $9, Hero raises to $14, BB calls $5

River: ($35.25) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32.50 (All-In), BB calls $32.50

Total pot: $100.25 | Rake: $2

Results:
BB mucked K, 3 (two pair, Kings and threes).
Hero had A, Q (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $98.25